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Presidential Election Year and Stock Market


Every business day the market changes, for the better or worse, depending on which side of the market you on.  However,  every four years, there’s a presidential election in United States, some of you might be wondering if the election has any effect on the market itself.

 

Money and power are two inseparable entities.  Money give people power, also works the other way around.  At the very least, people in power make policies and regulations that could affect the economy as a whole.

 

Let’s analyze the pattern of the way the market moved during the election years in the last 100 years.  



Year

D Cand

R Cand

Winner

Jan Market (DOW)

Dec Market

(DOW)

up/down (%)

Notes

2012

Obama

Romney

D

13214

13537

2.44

 

2008

Obama

McCain

D

14206

9900

-30.31

Great Recession

2004

Kerry

Bush Jr

R

13424

13435

0.08

 

2000

Gore

Bush Jr

R

15371

14704

-4.34

 

1996

Clinton

Dole

D

8287

9640

16.33

 

1992

Clinton

Bush

D

5534

5516

-0.33

 

1988

Dukakis

Bush

R

4012

4267

6.36

 

1984

Mondale

Reagan

R

2840

2728

-3.94

 

1980

Carter

Reagan

R

2670

2649

-0.79

 

1976

Carter

Ford

D

4160

4093

-1.61

 

1972

McGovern

Nixon

R

5204

5500

5.69

 

1968

Humphrey

Nixon

R

5948

6303

5.97

 

1964

Johnson

Goldwater

D

6025

6643

10.26

 

1960

Kennedy

Nixon

D

5039

4900

-2.76

 

1956

StevensonII

Eisenhower

R

4165

4291

3.03

 

1952

Stevenson II

Eisenhower

R

2422

2409

-0.54

 

1948

Truman

Dewey

D

1751

1744

-0.4

 

1944

Roosevelt

Dewey

D

1872

2029

8.39

 

1940

Roosevelt

Willkie

D

2480

2205

-11.09

 

1936

Roosevelt

Landon

D

2568

3047

18.65

 

1932

Roosevelt

Hoover

D

1263

1085

-14.09

Great Depression

1928

Smith

Hoover

R

2722

4160

52.83

 

1924

Davis

Coolidge

R

1380

1652

19.71

 

1920

Roosevelt

Harding

R

1280

879

-31.33

 

 

Over the last 100 years, the Republican and Democrats have each won 12 terms.  Out of the 12 times that Democrats have won the presidential office, the Dow Jones Index Average (DJIA)  has went up 5 times when compared from December to the January of the election year,  whereas when Republicans won the elections, the DJIA went up 7 times.  However there are outliers such as in 1932 when Roosevelt took over at the height of the Great depression in 1932 and Obama took over at the height of the Great Recession in 2008.  Interesting enough, both the Great Depression and Great Recession was under the watch of a sitting Republican president, and Democrat presidents took over.  

Whether Donald Trump or Hilary Clinton win this election, the market will defintely take that into account as one of the many factors that affect the market.  It will be interesting to see what happens

 This chart was based on historical data of DJIA from http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart.  We could not have finish this research without them.  Thanks!

 



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